Yule's Association Paradox and Ignored Stratum Heterogeneity in Capture-Recapture Studies

Joseph B. Kadane - Michael M. Meyer - John W. Tukey

Abstract:

This paper explores a reparameterization of a table. This reparameterization turns out to be useful in considering the consequences of amalgamating several tables. A formal theorem is derived permitting a characterization of Yule's Association Paradox. The same theorem also permits discussion of the likely direction of error in using tag-retag methods to estimate the size of a population. This has implications for the ``wily trout'' argument in the census correction controversy.

Keywords: census, reparameterization, Simpson paradoxes, tag-retag

Here is the full postscript text for this technical report. It is 125463 bytes long.