Poll: Most Say Bush Made a Good Case for War With Iraq

Jan. 29

- Bottom-line views on Iraq and the president's job performance barely budged after George W. Bush's State of the Union address. And while viewers by a 2-1 margin say he made a good case for war with Iraq, he was largely preaching to the choir.

Most of the positive responses to Bush's speech come from those who are on his side: Among people who support taking military action against Iraq, 79 percent say Bush made a good case for war. But among those who oppose it, 74 percent say he did not. Similarly, while 53 percent of viewers say the speech made them more confident in Bush's ability to handle the situation with Iraq, they disproportionately include supporters of his policy. Seventy-one percent of Republicans, for example, say the speech raised their confidence in Bush's work on Iraq. But only half as many Democrats agree. Bush had less success, moreover, bolstering public confidence in two other issues he tackled - the economy and health insurance. Just about one-third of viewers say the speech raised their confidence in his ability to handle either one, and again these disproportionately are Republicans. Nearly two in 10 - disproportionately Democrats - say they came away with less confidence in Bush's ability to handle these issues. A Good Case for War? Yes No Those Who Support Attack 79% 12% Those Who Oppose Attack 15% 74% All told, 64 percent of Americans say they watched the address live on television, compared to a high of 59 percent for Bill Clinton, in 1998. The audience, as usual in such events, was a somewhat partisan one: Among people who approve of Bush's overall job performance, 73 percent watched. Among those who disapprove, just 51 percent tuned in. Looking at it the other way, Bush's approval rating among those who watched his speech is 70 percent; among Americans who didn't watch, it's just 47 percent. Simply put, people who don't like a particular president are considerably less apt to tune him in. Overall, among viewers, 75 percent approve of most of what Bush said. This, too, is customary for a State of the Union address; Clinton had comparable numbers. Again, bottom-line views barely budged: Most support military action to oust Saddam Hussein, but that drops fairly sharply if the United Nations won't go along; and a smaller majority supports a ground war, again dropping if it means substantial U.S. casualties. Specifically, among all Americans in post-speech interviews, 63 percent support military action against Iraq - essentially unchanged from 61 percent Monday night. And that falls to 46 percent if the United Nations is opposed (it was 44 percent Monday night.) Fifty-five percent support invading Iraq with ground troops, but this declines to 40 percent if it means a high-casualty ground war - again, both within a point or two of their pre-speech levels. Bush's overall job approval rating was 62 percent after the speech; his approval rating for handling Iraq, 58 percent; and for handling the economy, a much lower 46 percent - all essentially the same as they were Monday night. His approval rating for handling health insurance issues is 40 percent; not at all good, but up from 33 percent in mid-December. Most Prefer Extending Weapons Inspections, Want More Evidence Most Americans continue to prefer extending U.N. weapons inspections before taking action against Iraq; most also remain interested in further evidence. And concern that the administration will move too fast continues to outstrip concern that it won't move quickly enough. Fifty-nine percent say that before deciding whether to attack the United States should give the inspectors a few more months to carry out their work; it was 64 percent Monday night, but that five-point difference is not statistically significant. Fifty-six percent would like to see Bush present more evidence; it was 60 percent Monday night. And 51 percent say they're more concerned the administration will move too quickly, compared to 39 percent who are more concerned it won't move quickly enough. Monday night it was a similar 54-36 percent division. Bush's assertion in his speech that Saddam Hussein "aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda" is one that confirms a perception already held by many Americans. Any number of polls since Sept. 11, 2001, have shown that most do think Iraq supports those terrorists; in this survey, 68 percent say so. This perception is an important one in fueling support for military action, in that such support is premised to a large extent on the sense of threat Americans feel from Iraq. Among those who think Iraq directly supports al Qaeda, 73 percent favor taking military action to oust Saddam. Among those who don't think he supports al Qaeda, support for military action drops to 45 percent. This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 28, 2003, among a random national sample of 781 adults. The results have a 3.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA. Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.

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