# Compare predictive ability of different bandwidths using k-fold CV
  # Inputs: number of folds, vector of bandwidths, dataframe
  # Presumes: data frame contains variables called "gdp.growth" and "gdp"
  # Output: vector of cross-validated MSEs for the different bandwidths
  # The default bandwidths here are NOT good ones for other problems
cv.growth.folds <- function(nfolds=5, bandwidths = (1:5)/10, df=penn) {
  require(np)
  case.folds <- rep(1:nfolds,length.out=nrow(df))
    # divide the cases as evenly as possible
  case.folds <- sample(case.folds) # randomly permute the order
  fold.mses <- matrix(0,nrow=nfolds,ncol=length(bandwidths))
  colnames(fold.mses) = as.character(bandwidths)
     # By naming the columns, we'll won't have to keep track of which bandwidth
     # is in which position
  for (fold in 1:nfolds) {
    # What are the training cases and what are the test cases?
    train <- df[case.folds!=fold,]
    test <- df[case.folds==fold,]
    for (bw in bandwidths) {
      # Fit to the training set
      # First create a "bandwidth object" with the fixed bandwidth
      current.npr.bw <- npregbw(gdp.growth ~ log(gdp), data=train, bws=bw,
        bandwidth.compute=FALSE)
      # Now actually use it to create the kernel regression
      current.npr <- npreg(bws=current.npr.bw)
      # Predict on the test set
      predictions <- predict(current.npr, newdata=test)
      # What's the mean-squared error?
      fold.mses[fold,paste(bw)] <- mean((test$gdp.growth - predictions)^2)
      # Using paste() here lets us access the column with the right name...
    }
  }
  # Average the MSEs
  bandwidths.cv.mses <- colMeans(fold.mses)
  return(bandwidths.cv.mses)
}