The following abstracts have been accepted and will be part of the
poster session at the Bayesian Workshop.

Back to Bayes 99 Homepage

by

*Heidi W. Ashih and Giovanni Parmigiani*

*ISDS*

*Duke University*

*Box 90251*

*Durham, NC 27708-0251*

`heidi@stat.duke.edu`

Our estimation approach is motivated by four goals: (a) overcoming the difficulty presented by the fact that the two data sources report data at different resolutions; (b) interpolating the empirical counts to provide estimates of probabilities in regions of the table that are sparsely populated; (c) avoiding estimates that would conflict with medical knowledge about the relationship between the two tests and (d) estimate the relationship between Ranking and Barthel scores at three months after the stroke, while borrowing strength from measurements made at zero, one and six months.

We handled (a) via data augmentation. We addressed both (b) and (c) via an approach that recognizes the natural negative dependence in the tables, and captures it without making any restrictive parametric assumptions about the relationship among the cell probabilities. This relationship is described via a condition that we termed local association, which means that any two-by-two sub-table will show association (in this case negative) among the scores. We addressed (d) by postulating an autoregressive stochastic process for the cell probabilities. Each cell probability table is modeled as a Dirichlet distribution whose mean is given by the cell probability of the previous time point. The Dirichlet distribution also includes a dispersion parameter which, in our context, controls the average amount of variation that occurs in the table from one time interval to the next.

Work carried out in collaboration with P Duncan, D Matchar, and G Samsa.

by

*Zeleke Worku*

*Technikon Natal*

*P.O. Box 953, Durban 4000, South Africa*
`zelekew@umfolozi.ntech.ac.za`

and

*Dan DeWaal*

*University of the Orange Free State*
*P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa*

by

*John B. Carlin*

*RCH Research Institute (University of Melbourne)*

*and University of South Florida*
*Epidemiology and Biostatistics, MDC-56*

*University of South Florida*

*Tampa, FL 33612*

`j.carlin@medicine.unimelb.edu.au `

by

*Eiki Satake*

*Emerson College, School of Communication Sciences and Disorders*

*100 Beacon Street*

*Boston, MA 02116*

`esatake@emerson.edu@ `

by

*Virdiana Lourdes, Mike West*

*ISDS*

*Duke University*
*Durham, NC *

`vl@stat.duke.edu `

and

*James Burgess*

*VA Management Sciences Group*

*Bedford, MA*

by

*D.J. De Waal*

*University of the Orange Free State*

*Department of Mathematical Statistics*
*P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300, RSA*

`wwdw@wwg3.uovs.ac.za `

and

*J. Beirlant*

*University of Kuleuven*

*Department of Applied Maths*

*Celestijnenlaan 200B*

*Heverlee 3001, Belgium*

`jan.beirlant@wis.kuleuven.ac.be `

by

*Hikaru Hasegawa*

*Faculty of Economics and Business Administration*

*Hokkaido University*

*Kita 9 Nishi 7*

*Kita-ku, Sapporo 060--0809*

*Japan*

`hasegawa@econ.hokudai.ac.jp `

*Tran Van Hoa*

*Department of Economics*
*Wollengong*

and

*Rebecca Valenzuela*

*Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research*
*University of Melbourne*

*Australia*

by

*Hedibert Freitas Lopes*

*DME, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro and*

*ISDS, Duke University*

*Rio de Janeiro, Brazeil*

`hedibert@stat.duke.edu `

*Peter Muller*

*ISDS*

*Duke University*

*Durham, NC 27708*

` pm@stat.duke.edu `

and

*Gary Rosner*

*Duke University Medical Center*

*Durham, NC 27708*

`gary.rosner@duke.edu`

by

*Daniela Golinelli and Peter Guttorp*

*Department of Statistics*

*University of Washington*
*Seattle, WA 98195*

`golinell@stat.washington.edu `

by

*Paola Sebastiani*

*Statistics Department*

*The Open University*

` p.sebastiani@open.ac.uk `

*Marco Ramoni*

*Knowledge Media Institute*

*The OpenUniversity*

` m.ramoni@open.ac.uk `

and

*Paul Cohen*
*Department of COmputer Science*

*University of Massachusetts*

*Amherst, MA *

`cohen@cs.umass.edu`

by

*Piet Groenewald and Carin Viljoen*

*University of the Orange Free State*

*Department of Mathematical Statistics*

*P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein 9300*

*RSA*

`wwpg@wwg3.uovs.ac.za `

by

*Lurdes Y.T. Inoue, Peter Muller, Gary Rosner and Mark Dewhirst*

*Duke University*

*P.O. Box 90251*

*Durham, NC*

`lurdes@stat.duke.edu, pm@stat.duke.edu,
grosner@cstatz.mc.duke.edu, dewhirst@radonc.duke.edu `

by

*Dalene Stangl, Lurdes Inoue and Steve Ponisciak*

*ISDS, Duke University*

*Box 90251*

*Durham, NC 27708-0251*

`dalene@stat.cmu.edu `

by

*Paola Sebastiani*

*The Open University*

`p.sebastiani@open.ac.uk@ `

*Marco Ramoni and Alexander Crea*

*Knowledge Media Institute*

*The Open University*

` m.ramoni@open.ac.uk, a.crea@open.ac.uk `

by

*Richard Evans*

*University of Arkansas*

*4301 W. Markham Street*

*Slot 781*

*Little Rock AR 72205*

`evansrichadb@exchange.uams.edu `

*Siu Hui*

*Indiana University*

and

*Joe Sedransk*

*Case Western Reserve University*

by

*Chin-pei Tsai and Kathry Chaloner*

*School of Statistics*

*University of Minnesota *

*352 Classroom Office Building*

*199 Buford Ave.*

*St. Paul MN 55108*

`cptsai@stat.umn.edu, kathryn@stat.umn.edu `

by

*J. Alex Stark, Kay Tatsuoka*

*National Institute of Statistical Sciences*

*Research Triangle Park, NC *

` stark@niss.org `

and

*Francoise Seillier-Moiseiwitsch*

*Department of Biostatistics*

*UNC Chapel Hill*

*Chapel Hill, NC*

by

*J. Lynn Palmer and Mark Munsell*

*UT M.D. Anderson Cancer Center*

*Departmentof Biostatistics*
*Houston, TX 77030*
` jlp@odin.mdacc.tmc.edu `

by

*Herbert Lee, Dave Higdon, Marco Ferreira and Mike West *

*Duke University*

*ISDS, Box 90251*

*Durham, NC*

` herbie@stat.duke.edu, higdon@stat.duke.edu, marco@stat.duke.edu, mw@stat.duke.edu `

by

*Peter Hoff, Michael Newton and Richard Halbert*

*University of Wisconsin, Madison*

*Department of Statistics*

*1210 W. Dayton*

*Madison, WI 53706-1685*

`hoff@stat.wisc.edu `

by

*Victor De Oliveira*

*Departmento de Computo Cientifico y Estadistica*

*Universidad Simon Bolivar*

*Caracas, Venezuela*

`vdo@cesma.usb.ve `

and

*Mark D. Ecker*

*Department of Mathematics*
*University of Northern Iowa*

*Cedar Falls, IA*

` ecker@math.uni.edu `

by

*Soledad A. Fernandez, Rohan L. Fernando and Alicia L. Cariquiry*

*Statistics Department*

*Iowa State University*

*202C Snedecor Hall*

*Ames, IA 50014 *

` soledad@iastate.edu `

by

* Vanja Dukic*

*Division of Applied Mathematics*

`vanja@stat.brown.edu`

and

*Joseph Hogan*
*Center for Statistical Sciences*

*Brown University*

*Providence, RI 02912*

by

*Robin Fisher and Jana Asher*

*HHES Division, 1065-3*

*U.S. Census Bureau*

*Washington, DC 20233-8500*

`jana.l.asher@ccmail.census.gov `

by

*David A. van Dyk *

*Department of Statistics*

*Harvard University*

` vandyk@stat.harvard.edu `

*Vinay L. Kashyap and Aneta Siemiginowka*

*Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics*
and

*Alanna Connors *

*Department of Astronomy*

*Wellesly College*

by

*M.J. Bayarri*

*University of Valencia*

*Av. Dr. Moliner 50*

*Burjassot, Spain*

` susie.bayarri@uv.es `

and

*A.M. Mayoral*

*Miguel Hernandez University*

*Av. Ferrocarril s/n*

*03202 Elche*

*Spain*

` asun.mayoral@umh.es `

by

*Scott C. Schmidler, Jun S. Liu and Douglas L. Brutlag*

*Section on Medical Informatics*

*and Dept. of Statistics and Biochemistry*
*Stanford University*

*Medical School Office Bldg, X215*

*Stanford, CA 94305*

` schmidler@smi.stanford.edu `

by

*Sudip Bose*

*Dept. of Statistics *

*The George Washington University*

*2201 G. Street, NW*

*Washington, DC 20052*

`sudip@gw.edu `

by

* Lynn E. Eberly and Bradley P. Carlin*

* Division of Biostatistics*

*School of Public Health*

*University of Minnesota*

* 420 Delaware St. SE, Box 303*

* Minneapolis, MN 55455*

` lynn@biostat.umn.edu`

by

*Dave Higdon and Richard E. Miller*

*Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences*

*and Zoology*
*Duke University*

*Box 90251*

*Durham, NC 27708-0251*

`higdon@stat.duke.edu `

by

*Fabrizio Ruggeri and Antonio Pievatolo*

*CNR-AIMI*

*Via Ampere 56*

*20131 Milano, Italy*

`fabrizio@iami.mi.cnr.it`

by

* Steven N. MacEachern and Mario Peruggia*

* The Ohio State University*

* Department of Statistics*

* Columbus, OH 43210*

` peruggia@stat.ohio-state.edu`

by

* Cavan Reilly and Andrew Gelman*

* Department of Statistics, Columbia University*

* 618 Mathematics NY,Ny 10027*

` cavan@stat.columbia.edu`

with an Application to Natural Selection Studies

by

* Sandip Sinharay and Hal Stern*

* Iowa State University*

* Department of Statistics*

* Ames IA 50011*

` ssray@iastate.edu`

by

*Thomas Nichols, Bill Eddy, Jay McClelland and Chris Genovese*

*Department of Statistics and*

*Center for Neural Basis of Cognition*

* Carnegie Mellon University*

*5000 Forbes Avenue*

*Pittsburgh, PA 15213*

` nicholst@stat.cmu.edu, bill@stat.cmu.edu,jlm@cnbc.cmu.edu,genovese@stat.cmu.edu`

by

*Pam Abbitt*

*North Carolina State University*

*RALEIGH, NC 27695*

` abbitt@stat.ncsu.edu`

by

*Matthew Johnson*

*Carnegie Mellon University*

*Division of Statistics*

*Pittsburgh, PA 15213*

`masjohns@stat.cmu.edu `

by

*John R. Lockwood III, Mark J. Schervish, Patrick Gurian, Mitchell J. Small*

* Carnegie Mellon University*

* Department of Statistics*

* Pittsburgh, PA 15213*

` jlock@stat.cmu.edu`

by

*Howard Seltman*

*Carnegie Mellon University*

*Division of Statistics*

*Pittsburgh, PA 15213*

`hseltman@stat.cmu.edu `

by

*Illaria DiMatteo and Joseph B. Kadane*

*Carnegie Mellon University*

*Division of Statistics*

*Pittsburgh, PA 15213*

`dimatteo@stat.cmu.edu`

by

*Sanjib Basu*

*Northern Illinois University*

*Division of Statistics*

*DeKalb, IL 60115*

`basu@niu.edu `