---
title: "Welcome to CMSACamp"
subtitle: "Background and overview"
date: "2020/06/01"
---

## Meet the instructors

- Teaching Assistant: __Pratik Patil__ - started  [@CMU_Stats](https://twitter.com/CMU_Stats) & [Machine Learning](https://www.ml.cmu.edu/) PhD in '17 
  - Previously Indian Institute of Technology and University of Toronto, 
  - Research: Statistical Machine Learning, Optimization, Information and Coding theory
  - Particularly enjoys sports involving bouncy spheres and rackets and bats

- Teaching Assistant: __Beomjo Park__ - started [@CMU_Stats](https://twitter.com/CMU_Stats) PhD in '18 
  - Previously Korea University, and research assistant at NCSoft (owner of the NC Dinos!) 
  - Research: Bayesian Nonparametrics, Variational Inference, Robust Statistical Inference, Model misspecification

--

.pull-left[
- Instructor: __Ron Yurko__ ([@Stat_Ron](https://twitter.com/Stat_Ron))
  - [@CMU_Stats](https://twitter.com/CMU_Stats) '15, started PhD in '17 
  - Pittsburgh Pirates analytics intern '14

  - Research: [_selective inference_](https://sites.google.com/view/selective-inference-seminar) in statistical genetics and genomics 

  - Actively publish _statistics in sports_ / _sports analytics_ research (more on that later...)
]

.pull-right[

.center[![](https://media1.tenor.com/images/e04caa040893f7d3fc11c24f6fab2de4/tenor.gif?itemid=8079093)]

]
  
---

## Statistics in sports research?

You might think statistics in sports or sports analytics research is relatively new...


--

.pull-left[


Professors [Brad Efron](http://statweb.stanford.edu/~ckirby/brad/) and [Carl Morris](https://statistics.fas.harvard.edu/people/carl-n-morris) disagree

- "Data analysis using Stein's estimator and its generalizations"

- _Journal of the American Statistical Association_ (__1975__)

- Introduction of __Empirical Bayes__ to sports

- _We'll revisit this in a few weeks!_

]
.pull-right[

.center[![](http://www.stat.cmu.edu/cmsac/sure/materials/img/stein-baseball1.png)]


]


---

## Growth in modern sports analytics research __starts with the data__

.center[![](https://d3i71xaburhd42.cloudfront.net/e64e2935a7d2565f8d29250fec9f039ed0767cde/4-Figure1-1.png)]

Cervone et al. ["A multiresolution stochastic process model for predicting basketball possession outcomes."](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.0777.pdf) _Journal of the American Statistical Association_ (2016)

---

## Growth in modern sports analytics research __starts with the data__

.center[![](https://d3i71xaburhd42.cloudfront.net/e64e2935a7d2565f8d29250fec9f039ed0767cde/5-Figure2-1.png)]

Cervone et al. ["A multiresolution stochastic process model for predicting basketball possession outcomes."](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.0777.pdf) _Journal of the American Statistical Association_ (2016)

---

## NFL Big Data Bowl tracking data example

```{r, echo = FALSE, out.width = '150%', fig.align='center'}
knitr::include_graphics("http://www.stat.cmu.edu/cmsac/sure/materials/img/rfcde_gif_td_run_update.gif") 

```

Yurko et al. ["Going deep: models for continuous-time within-play valuation of game outcomes in American football with tracking data."](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1906.01760.pdf) _Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports_ (2020)

---

### Outline of summer [http://www.stat.cmu.edu/cmsac/sure/materials/](http://www.stat.cmu.edu/cmsac/sure/materials/) (subject to change)

--

- First two weeks, June 1-12:
  - Getting started with `R` and `tidyverse`, GitHub, EDA, data visualization with `ggplot2`
  - Clustering and Gaussian mixture models
  - __EDA project presentations June 12th__


--
- June 15-26:
  - Linear models, GLMs, regularization, bias-variance tradeoff
  - Dimension reduction, principal component analysis (PCA)
    - __Regression project presentations June 26th__


--
- June 29 - July 3: TBA!


--
- July 6 - 17:
  - Smoothing regression, generalized additive models (GAMs)
  - Empirical Bayes, multilevel modeling 
  - Decision trees, ensemble models, neural networks 


--
- July 20 - 29:
  - Focus on final projects!
  - __Final project presentations July 27 - 29__
  
---

## CMSACamp 2019 alumni

.pull-left[

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just realized I haven’t announced this on twitter yet, but I have officially committed to earn my PhD in statistics at <a href="https://twitter.com/virginia_tech?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@virginia_tech</a> !! <a href="https://t.co/TKDR3uXRVj">pic.twitter.com/TKDR3uXRVj</a></p>&mdash; Danielle Sebring (@DSebring17) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSebring17/status/1242977905203769346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

]

.pull-right[
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thank you <a href="https://twitter.com/SloanSportsConf?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SloanSportsConf</a> for an outstanding conference. <a href="https://twitter.com/j_bosch10?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@j_bosch10</a> <a href="https://t.co/3ekyk0wvHC">https://t.co/3ekyk0wvHC</a></p>&mdash; Sam Kalman (@sam_kalman_) <a href="https://twitter.com/sam_kalman_/status/1236435614452592643?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

]

---

## CMSACamp 2019 alumni

.pull-left[
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Honored to be a part of this! <a href="https://t.co/lsEQ8sBpPt">https://t.co/lsEQ8sBpPt</a></p>&mdash; Audrey Bertin (@ambertin99) <a href="https://twitter.com/ambertin99/status/1234869526409490433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
]

.pull-right[


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thank you for all the positive responses and feedback on my presentation! I had a wonderful time at <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CBJHAC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CBJHAC</a> and learned so much this past weekend. For those who want another look, my slides can be found here: <a href="https://t.co/fgKQ0R65Ep">https://t.co/fgKQ0R65Ep</a></p>&mdash; kat! (@kattaqueue) <a href="https://twitter.com/kattaqueue/status/1226998268527181824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
]


---

## CMSACamp 2019 alumni

.pull-left[
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Check out my boxing rankings for each division at <a href="https://t.co/dRckV99gCx">https://t.co/dRckV99gCx</a> Going to be adding some more interesting stuff soon. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/boxing?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#boxing</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/sports?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#sports</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/canelo?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#canelo</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ggg?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ggg</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/fridaymorning?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#fridaymorning</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/tysonfury?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#tysonfury</a></p>&mdash; Jeremy Sanchez (@_jsanchez1) <a href="https://twitter.com/_jsanchez1/status/1261342706107772928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
]
.pull-right[
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It’s unusual time but I am happy to share that I am graduating. First one to go to college and to graduate from both sides of my family <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/firstgen?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#firstgen</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/rstats?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#rstats</a> graduate. <a href="https://t.co/ZDZU5M3SnY">pic.twitter.com/ZDZU5M3SnY</a></p>&mdash; Kapil.Khanal (@almost_kapil) <a href="https://twitter.com/almost_kapil/status/1258874572365082629?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
]

---

class: center, middle

# And now it's your turn

