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\def\course{36-303: Sampling, Surveys and Society}
\def\semester{Spring 2011}
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\begin{center}\Large\bf
\course \\
\semester
\end{center}

\begin{center}\Large
\tt              TR     03:00PM -- 04:20PM    DH A310
 \\
http://www.stat.cmu.edu/\~{}brian/303\\
http://www.cmu.edu/blackboard 

% \it              Course Policies and Syllabus 
\end{center}

\head{Course Information}

\noindent
\begin{tabular}{lcl}
\hspace*{0.5em}
\begin{tabular}[t]{l}
{\it Instructor:} \\
\hline
Brian Junker, Statistics \\
132E Baker Hall \\
268-8874 \\
{\tt brian@stat.cmu.edu} \\
\vspace*{\fill} \\
{\it Office Hours:} \\
\hline
Immediately after class\\
{\em (or by appointment)}. 
\end{tabular}

& \hspace*{8em} &

\begin{tabular}[t]{l}
{\em Teaching Assistant:} \\
\hline
Jionglin Wu, Statistics\\
FMS 328B\\
(412) 268-1889\\
{\tt jionglin@stat.cmu.edu}\\
\vspace*{\fill} \\
{\em Office Hours:} \\
\hline
TBA\\
Statistics Tutoring Room\\
FMS Building \\
{\em (or by appointment)}.
% \\
% \vspace*{\fill} \\
% {\em Course Web Page:}\\
% \hline
% {\tt Blackboard {\bf AND}}\\
% \hbox to 1in{\tt http://www.stat.cmu.edu/\~{}brian/303}
\end{tabular}

\end{tabular}

\vspace*{0.5em}
\head{Overview}

% \noindent
Surveys are ubiquitous in modern life.  
% 
A recent search for ``survey'' on Google News yielded over 30,000 hits.
The first page or so included hits like:
% \begin{itemize}\tight
% \item
``Survey: Texas Voters like Gov. Rick Perry but don't want him running
for president'', 
% ``Americans, Amid Recession, Dislike Their Jobs'',
% \item ``Survey: SD Lawmakers Support Retirement System Fix'',
``GoIP's GO800 Completes Survey:
90\% Would Rather Use Text Than a Phone Number'',
% ``Cancer treatment costs play role in doctors' decisions, Tufts survey says'',
% \item 
``U.S. gasoline prices rise to \$3.08/gallon---survey'',
% ``Survey: Android Gaining Ground, Fast'', 
% \item ``Our Survey USA 9 News poll asked 500 adults, how important is
%  the issue of change in the 2008 presidential election?''
% \item 
``Survey Finds Religious Influence Waning in America'',
% ``Survey: Chile Consumer Price Index Seen Falling 0.3\% In Dec'', and 
% \end{itemize}
``Bullying is rife at British Airways, union survey claims''.
% ``A University of Illinois at Chicago research group will perform a
% survey of River Forest residents to see what they think about police
% service.''

Social and economic policy in the US and elsewhere are informed---and
evaluated---by national surveys such as {\em The National Crime
  Victimization Survey}, {\em The National Assessment of Educational
  Progress}, {\em The Current Population Survey}, etc.  Marketing
research regularly uses survey methods; professional journals like
{\em Quirks} regularly have articles like ``Searching for
representative Black households'', ``How not to market to
Asian-American Youth'', ``Comparing online and phone research'',
``Keep undesirable respondents out of your online survey''.  And
survey sampling is an indispensable part of economics, political
science, and other social sciences.

Yet survey methodology as we know it today was really only developed in
the 20$^{th}$ century, and much of the growth in the use of surveys
has occurred in just the past 50 years.  At the beginning of the
20$^{th}$ century statisticians were debating whether anything less
than a complete census---asking {\em every} member of a target
population---could be reliable, yet today, samples of 500 or 1,000
individuals from populations of millions of people are routinely used.
A reliable survey has many interrelated components: identifying a
target population, choosing a sampling method, deciding how to collect
data from each survey respondent, writing good survey questions,
dealing with missing responses, analyzing the data, making a report.

In this course we will look at the role of sampling and sample surveys
in the context of U.S. society and its institutions. We will examine
the evolution of survey taking in the United States in the context of
its economic, social and political uses. This will eventually lead to
discussions about the accuracy and relevance of survey responses,
especially in light of various kinds of nonsampling error. 
% 
All students will be required to design, implement, analyze, and
report on a sample survey.

% \vspace*{0.5em}
\head{Textbooks, Resources and Statistical Methods}

\noindent
The required text (in the bookstore) for the course is:
\begin{itemize}\tight

\item Groves, R. M., Fowler, F. J. Jr., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski,
  J. M., Singer, E. and Tourangeau, R. (2009). {\em Survey
  Methodology, SECOND EDITION.} (paperback).  New York: Wiley.  ISBN:
  978-0-470-46546. 

\end{itemize}
Some other useful resources on survey sampling include (these are not
in the bookstore):
\begin{itemize}\tight

\item Converse, J. M. \& Presser, S. (1986). {\em Survey Questions:
  Handcrafting the Standardized Questionnaire} (paperback).  Sage
  Publications Inc. ISBN: 978-0803927438. 

\item Kalton, G. (1983). {\em Introduction to Survey Sampling}
  (paperback).  Sage Publications, Inc. ISBN:
  978-0803921269. 

\end{itemize}
and if you are really interested in survey sampling, the very next
serious book you are likely to read is:
\begin{itemize}\tight

% \item Lohr, S. (1999).  {\em Sampling: Design And Analysis.} (hardcover).
%   Duxbury Press.  ISBN: 978-0534353612. (\$143.00 at Amazon.com)

\item Lohr, S. (2009).  {\em Sampling: Design And Analysis. 2$^{nd}$}
  (hardcover).  Duxbury Press.  ISBN: 978-0495105275.

\end{itemize}
There will also be a variety of handouts, examples, and lecture notes
at the course website.

Some computation and statistical analysis will be required in the
course.  You are welcome to use any statistics package you are
familiar with, such such as Excel, Minitab, R, Splus, or SAS (all are
available in public clusters; for your personal computer, Minitab can
be downloaded from {\tt www.cmu.edu/myandrew} and R can be
  downloaded from {\tt http://cran.r-project.org/}).

You will be using statistical methods you have learned in 36-202 or a
similar course.  {\em There will be a quiz in the second lecture
  covering the material you need for this course.}


\vspace*{0.5em}
\head{Objectives}

\begin{enumerate}\tight

\item To gain an appreciation for the uses of sample surveys in
  American society;

\item To learn the statistical properties associated with sampling
  from a finite population;

\item To learn about practical aspects of the design and
  implementation of sample surveys;

\item To understand the nature of non-sampling and measurement errors
  in surveys and how to control their effects;

\item To design, conduct, analyze, and report on a sample survey.

\end{enumerate}

\comment{

% \vspace*{0.5em}
\head{Software}
%\vspace*{-0.5em}
\noindent
Statistics requires calculations, and calculations require computer
software. 
\begin{itemize}
\item My favorite Statistics software is R, and you will need to learn
  R for 36-315, 35-350 and 36-401/402 anyway, so I will do most
  examples and exercises in R.  R is a free download at {\tt
    http://cran.r-pro\-ject.org/} for Windows, Macintosh and LINUX, and
  it is already installed in Windows labs on campus.  Documentation is
  easy to find on the www.  See also {\tt
    http://www.stat.cmu.edu/\~{}brian/R-tu\-torials/}.
\item If there is some package you like better (Excel, SPSS, SAS,
  Minitab, \ldots), you may use that instead.  However, we can only
  promise expert advice in R.
\item Some specialized software is used in survey sampling (e.g.,
  Stata, SUDAAN, VPLX, WesVarPC, etc.).  You may wish to explore these
  packages after taking 36-303.
%   and we may be able to look at
%   some of this as time permits during the semester.
\end{itemize}


\head{Course Description and Course Objectives}

This course will revolve around the role of sampling and sample
surveys in the context of U.S. society and its institutions. We will
examine the evolution of survey taking in the United States in the
context of its economic, social and political uses. This will
eventually lead to discussions about the accuracy and relevance
of survey responses, especially in light of various kinds of
nonsampling error. Students will be required to design, implement
and analyze a survey sample.

At the end of this course you should be able to:
\begin{itemize}\tight
\item Discuss major points of the history, purposes, principles, and
  challenges of survey methodology.
% \item Understand the principles underlying survey methodology, as
%   derived from conceptual frameworks in statistics, psychology,
%   sociology and computer science.
\item Describe the major components of survey design,
  implementation, and analysis.
\item Develop, conduct, analyze and report on straightforward survey
  designs.
\item Know enough to intelligently seek help for more complex survey
  designs. 
\end{itemize}

\noindent

}

The course will run in two parallel ``tracks'': The ``Classwork''
track will give you some of the tools you need to do the ``Project''
track of the course.  {\em Both tracks} of the class will start right
away, to give you enough tools and enough time to successfully
complete your projects.

\head{Requirements: Classwork}

Classwork will consist of the following four requirements:
\begin{itemize}\tight
\item Reading assignments from the textbook and other sources, and
  taking notes in class;
\item Quizzes and classroom discussion; 
\item Homework assignments (practice with writing, computation, and
  other tasks);
\item Two midterm exams.
\end{itemize}

% You may work with other students on homework problems or refer to other
% sources if you would like.  The computations and writeup of your 
% assignment, however, must be your own.  

Clear, careful writing and interpretation of results is an important
part of both weekly homeworks and the projects.

Always be judicious about including computer output and graphs: show
enough that we can clearly see what you are doing, but not so much
that we will get lost or bored leafing through your work!  A good rule
of thumb is to remove any figures, tables, graphs, etc. that you do
not have something interesting to say about in the text of your
homework solution.

Some homework will be submitted to me in class, and some will be
submitted electronically by email or on Blackboard.  For electronic
submissions, {\em only one pdf or text file will be accepted, per
  assignment.}  Please do not submit ms word documents; convert them
to pdf and submit that instead.  Because of font and version
differences, ms word may look fine on one computer but be
unintelligible on another.

\head{Requirements: Project}

For the project you will divide up into groups of about 4--5 students
each.  Each group will select a survey topic, design questions and a
sampling plan, carry out the survey, analyze the results, and produce
a final written report. 

% In order to stay on track, your project group will need to complete a
% number of milestones throughout the semester.

% \hfil MILESTONES HERE

Clear, careful writing and interpretation of results is an important
part of both weekly homeworks and the projects.

\head{Requirements: Grading}

The various requirements in the course will be weighted as follows:
\begin{center}
\def\m#1{\hbox to 0pt{#1}}
\begin{tabular}{rr@{\%}}
Homework, Quizzes, Other Assigments    & 20 \\
Midterm (FEB 17)                       & 15 \\
Final (APR 12)                         & 15 \\
Citizenship, Discussion, Attendance    & 10 \\
Project Phase I                        &  5 \\
Project Phase II                       &  5 \\            
Project Phase III                      & 30 \\
\hline
Total                                  & 100
\end{tabular}
\end{center}

\head{Extra Credit}

If your group registers for Meeting of the Minds (MoM; Deadline Apr 1)
and presents a poster (May 4), I will throw out the lowest {\em
  non-zero} exam score of each person in that group.  If your group
registers for the Statistics Poster Competition at MoM and wins first
place, I will give that group all A's regardless of their numerical
scores.  In addition, first place always gets a cash prize from the
Statistics Department.
 
% I guarantee anyone above 90\% at least an A, anyone above 80\% at
% least a B, anyone above 70\% at least a C, and anyone above 60\% at
% least a D.  

\clearpage

\head{Citizenship}

Much of the work done for this course relies on working with
others. You are expected to participate fully in both class and in
group assignments. You will be graded on this by both the instructor
and the other members of your group.  Occasionally I will ask you to
fill out peer citizenship assessment forms for your group. These
evaluations are confidential and anonymous in the sense that only I
and the TA will see the results; other students in the class will
not. I will, however, provide feedback if necessary. The purpose of
the assessment is only to ensure that everyone is participating fully
and working together, NOT to assess someone’s strengths and weaknesses
with the class material. Your citizenship grade will be worth 10\%.

\head{Plagiarism}

Plagiarism is completely unacceptable. For the purposes of this class,
plagiarism is using other people’s words or ideas without crediting
those people. 
\begin{itemize}
\item Group work can use the words and ideas generated by that group without
giving credit other than listing all group members’ names on the
assignment.  

\item If you work with someone on an assignment, simply acknowledge that you
did so on the first page. 

\item If you get ideas or words from a website, journal article, etc
  that you found helpful, cite the source on your assignment/group
  work, right where you use it.  Then put a bibliography or list of
  sources cited at the end of each piece of work you do.

\item You will not be penalized for working together (except for
  exams) if appropriately cited.

\item Each case of plagiarism will be considered individually; consequences
will depend on the seriousness of the case.
\end{itemize}

\head{Communication and Schedule}

\begin{itemize}

\item \ul{\em Schedule.} A rough schedule of 
\begin{itemize}
\item Lecture Topics
\item Milestones for the projects
\end{itemize}
will be distributed in the second or third lecture.

\item \ul{\em Class website.} Please watch the website
  \verb|http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~brian/303| closely.  Current lecture
  notes, assignment deadlines, etc., will be updated there.

\item \ul{\em Blackboard.} Grades will be kept on a Blackboard site for this class.  

\end{itemize}

\end{document}

\clearpage

\head{Rough Plan of Action}

Following is a \ul{\bf rough} outline of the topics we will cover,
together with associated chapters from Groves et al.  {\em Additional
  readings may also be assigned.}  We are reading the chapters of
Groves out of order, so that you can start sooner on some important
project tasks.  

A more detailed lecture plan will be updated weekly on {\tt
  http://www.stat.cmu.edu/\~{}brian/303}.

\vspace*{-0.75em}
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\let\q\quad
% \def\w#1&#2\\{~\\[-0.5em]{\bf #1}&{\em #2}\\}
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\def\t#1&#2&#3\\{~\\[-0.9em]\multicolumn{3}{l}{
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  \hfill\setbox0=\hbox{\parbox[t]{1.33in}{#3}}\dp0=0pt\box0}\\}
\begin{tabular}{p{3.1in}rr}
\t Week: Topic & \bf Date/Reading & \bf Project Milestone\\[0.5em]
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 01: Introduction  & Jan 11 / Jan 13 & 
I.0: Group Requests\\
\q History, Examples                                    & Groves, Ch  1&\\
\q Key ideas                                            &              &\\
\q DIAGNOSTIC QUIZ THURSDAY JAN 13 &&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 02: Inference and Error in Surveys& Jan 18 / Jan 20 &  
I.0: Group Assignments\\
\q Components of a Survey                                 & Groves, Ch 2&\\
\q Quality in Surveys                                     &             &\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 03: Collecting Data                               & Jan 25 / Jan 27 & 
I.1: Group Topic Proposals \\
\q Methods of Data Collection                            & Groves, Ch 5&\\
\q Ethics in Survey Research                            & Groves, 11.1--11.5&\\
\q Statistics of Surveys                                 & Groves, 4.1--4.3&\\
\q                                                      &  Lohr  Excerpts&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 04: Survey Statistics                          & Feb 01 / Feb 03 &  
I.2: Population, Frame, Mode (for ALL topics!)\\
\q Statistics of Surveys                                 & Groves, 4.1--4.3&\\
\q                                                       & Lohr  Excerpts&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 05: Reducing Nonstatistical Error                & Feb 08 / Feb 10 & 
I.3: Pick Topic, Start Design and Approval \\
\q Sampling Frame                                      & Groves, Ch 3&\\
% \q                                              & Converse/Presser Excerpts&\\
\q  Survey Questions and Answers                     & Groves, Ch 7 \& 8&\\
% \q  Survey Interviewing                                 & Groves, Ch  9&\\
% \q                                              & Converse/Presser Excerpts&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 06: Project Progress Reports \& Midterm EXAM& Feb 15 / Feb 17 & 
II.4: Sampling Scheme \& Design Questions \\
\q MIDTERM EXAM THURDSAY FEB 17&&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 07: Implementing the Survey& Feb 22 / Feb 24&  
II.5: Pretest Questions\\
\q Stratified Sampling                              & Groves, Sect 4.5&\\
\q                                       & Handout &\\
\q Some Implementation Details                   &     Handout &\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 08: Nonresponse and How to Reduce it        & Mar 01 / Mar 03 &
II.6: Final Project Plan and Approval\\
\q Nonresponse                                   & Groves, Ch 6&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w MIDSEMESTER BREAK& FRI MAR 4 & \\
%
\w SPRING BREAK & MAR 07 -- MAR 11&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 09: Post-Survey Processing              & Mar 15 / Mar 17&\\
\q Clustered Sampling                           & Groves, 4.4 and 4.7&\\
\q Post-Survey Processing                       & Groves, Ch 10 &\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 10: More on Post-Survey Processing& Mar 22 / Mar 24&\\
\q Variances for Weights                         &  Lecture Notes&\\
\q Post-Stratification Challenges                & Handout &\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 11: Catchup \& Case Studies& Mar 29 / Mar 31 &
III.7: Progress Reports\\
\q MEETING OF THE MINDS DEADLINE APRIL 1            &      Groves, Ch 12&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 12: Catchup \& Case Studies& Apr 05 / Apr 07 &
III.8: Rough Drafts\\
\q                                                  &     &\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 13: Final EXAM \& Carnival& Apr 12 / Apr 14 & \\
\q FINAL EXAM THURDSAY APRIL 12&&\\
\q CARNIVAL APRIL 15--16&&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 14: Special Topics, Project Presentations& Apr 19 / Apr 21 &
III.9: Oral Presentations \& Final Reports\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w WEEK 15: Special Topics, Project Presentations& Apr 26 / Apr 28 &\\
\q ~~&&\\
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\w MEETING OF THE MINDS & May 04 & \\
\end{tabular}
\vspace*{-5in}
\end{center}
}

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