*Text:* The primary text will be the lecture notes. Kallenberg's
Foundations of Modern Probability (2nd ed.) will be used as a
reference and a source of problems. (It's on order at the CMU bookstore, but
about $20 cheaper
at Powell's.)
Students who took 36-752 last semester, when it used Ash and Doleans-Dade, will
also find the last two chapters helpful. Another good book is Fristedt and
Gray's A
Modern Approach to Probability Theory. Some material will also be
drawn from the following books, available online:

- Robert M. Gray, Probability, Random Processes, and Ergodic Properties
- Robert M. Gray, Entropy and Information Theory
- Sean P. Meyn and Richard L. Tweedie, Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability
- David M. Pollard, Convergence of Stochastic Processes

- Basics of Stochastic Processes [16--20 January]
- Stochastic processes as indexed collections of random variables, in general dependent; stochastic processes as random functions; sample paths; finite-dimensional distributions; consistency conditions; Kolmogorov's extension theorem and the existence of stochastic processes; "standard" spaces; functionals of sample paths
- Fundamentals of One-Parameter Processes, Usually Functions of Time [23--30 January]
- Reminders about filtrations and stopping times; one-sided and two-sided processes; shift representation of discrete-time processes; the semi-group of time-evolution operators; continuity of sample paths, continuous modifications, "cadlag" processes, "pure jump" processes; stationarity: strong, weak, conditional; functions of stationary processes; a first look at measures of dependence and correlation; Gaussian processes; waiting times: hitting, first-passage, return/recurrence
- Basics of Markov Processes [1--8 February]
- Markov processes as generalizations of IID variables and of deterministic dynamical systems; the transition probability view; the evolution operator view; the generator of the time-evolution semi-group; the Markov property and the strong Markov property; the "martingale problem" and Feller processes; return times, recurrence, Harris recurrence; evolution equations for distributions (Fokker-Planck, Chapman-Kolmogorov, etc.); invariant distributions; eigenvalues and eigenvectors of evolution operators, the spectral gap; cadlag and pure-jump Markov processes (branching, birth-death, counting, Poisson); diffusions
- The Wiener Process and Brownian Motion [10--20 February]
- The Wiener process defined by independent Gaussian increments and continuity; Wiener's construction of a probability measure on the space of continuous functions; nowhere differentiability of the sample paths; martingale property; Gaussian finite-dimensional distributions; weak convergence of random walks to Wiener processes, a.k.a. Donsker's theorem, a.k.a. the functional central limit theorem, a.k.a. the invariance principle; (*) the Wiener process and physical Brownian motion
- A Foretaste of Empirical Process Theory [22--24 February]
- The Glivenko-Cantelli lemma; the empirical process; the Brownian bridge; the empirical central limit theorem for uniform random variables; quantile transformations; the empirical central limit theorem for general real-valued random variables
- Stochastic Calculus and Diffusions [27 February--6 March]
- First approach to stochastic integrals via Euler's method; rigorous definition of integrals with respect to Wiener process; stochastic differential equations; "white noise"; diffusions as solutions of SDEs, generators of diffusions, evolution of probability density; Ito's formula; the Stratonovich interpretation of SDEs; some examples of SDEs (including Langevin equations and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process); SDEs and boundary-value ("Dirichlet") problems; Feynman-Kac formulae; (*) stochastic integrals with respect to other martingales
- Ergodic Theory [8--24 March]
- Measure-preserving transformations and Markov operators; time averages; invariant sets and invariant measures; ergodic transformations; ergodic decomposition of non-ergodic processes; convergence of time averages; ergodicity as equality of time averages and expectations; the mean-square ergodic theorem, estimates of convergence rates; the maximal ergodic lemma; Birkhoff's almost-sure ergodic theorem; more on ergodic decompositions; the ergodic theorem for stationary processes; some necessary and sufficient conditions for ergodicity; (*) spectrum of a weakly stationary process; (*) Wiener-Khinchin theorem
- Mixing [27--31 March]
- Definition and examples of mixing processes; mixing coefficients and rates, decay of correlations; deterministic mixing; central limit theorems and convergence of empirical measure resulting from mixing; exactness or asymptotic stability; correspondence between levels of distributional convergence and levels of ergodicity; variations: geometric ergodicity, the Kingman-Liggett sub-additive ergodic theorem, the multiplicative ergodic theorem; a hint of uniform ergodic theory
- Information theory [3--10 April]
- Stochastic processes as information sources; Shannon entropy; relative entropy, a.k.a. Kullback-Leibler divergence; the Gibbs inequality; relative entropy, likelihood and Fisher information; the Rényi entropies and divergences; mutual information; the mutual information function as a measure of dependence; entropy and divergence rates; a glimpse of source coding; the asymptotic equipartition property (Shannon-MacMillan-Breiman theorem) for entropy and divergence; typical and jointly typical sequences; bounds on likelihood from AEP; partitions, symbolic dynamics, generating partitions; Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy (entropy rate) of a dynamical system; entropy rate as an invariant; isomorphism of Bernoulli processes and deterministic dynamics; behavior of the entropy under Markov operators; convergence of distributions in relative entropy
- Large deviations [12--19 April]
- Large deviations principles and rate functions; IID large deviations, for empirical means, empirical measure, and for empirical process measures; the contraction principle; role of relative entropy as a rate function; application to hypothesis testing and parameter estimation; large deviations for Markov processes; (*) some applications of Markovian large deviations: information rates, effective action principles, the H-theorem of statistical mechanics; more general large deviations for stationary and ergodic processes; Gärtner-Ellis theorem; hypothesis testing more generally; (*) random perturbations of deterministic dynamics; (*) convergence of Markov processes to deterministic dynamics
- Multi-parameter processes [24--28 April]
- Some general notions; Markov random fields and their key properties; a few examples of Markov random fields; Gibbs distributions and their key properties, including variational principles; random fields on graphs; the equivalence of the Gibbs and Markov properties; historical notes on the preceding theorem
- Last Week of Lectures [1--5 May]
- Assuming we are not behind schedule, we'll look at one of the following three topics in the last week, as determined by class interest. Papers and/or book chapters will be distributed.
- (*) Interacting particle systems
- as example of spatio-temporal process; as collection of interacting Markov processes; some examples (contact, voter, cyclic); the "universal coupling" construction; equilibrium distributions; convergence to equilibrium; branching interacting particle systems; interacting particle systems, Feynman-Kac formulae, and glimpse at statistical applications (particle filtering)
- (*) Recurrence
- Poincaré's recurrence theorem; Kac's recurrence theorem; recurrence times and entropy rates; large deviations for recurrences; "how sampling reveals a process"
- (*) Markovian representations
- trivial Markovian representations; prediction of discrete, stationary sequences; predictive sufficiency and information theory; predictive information; construction of maximally predictive states; Markov properties of predictive states; information-theoretic complexity of prediction and minimal sufficiency; Knight's construction of the general measure-theoretic prediction process and its properties